Hyne Tumbarumba mill
The impending Eden-Monaro by-election will be go to the candidate who delivers the strongest and most positive growth plan for forest industries, according to the Australian Forest Products Association. Source: Timberbiz
The long serving sitting member Mike Kelly yesterday ended months of speculation by making what he described as the “gut-wrenching” decision to resign from Parliament due to ongoing ill-health.
Labor is expected to endorse Bega mayor Kristy McBain to contest the by-election. If history is anything to go by, she should hold onto the seat. No government has won a seat from an opposition at a by-election in more than 100 years.
It’s a point not lost on the Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
“The Liberal Party will contest the seat as I’m sure the National Party will contest the seat but that doesn’t change the history which would mean that it would be a country in a hundred year event for a government in those circumstances if they were to take a seat from the Opposition,” he said.
“That would be a rather extraordinary outcome but it’s one we will put our best foot forward for in this environment.”
Eden-Monaro has traditionally gone to the party of government until Dr Kelly – who held it for Labor under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s prime ministership — bucked the trend and won it back for the ALP in the 2016 election.
Dr Kelly holds the electorate on a margin of 0.9%, after a 2.1% swing to the Coalition during last year’s federal election.
Liberal Senator Jim Molan and NSW transport minister Andrew Constance are believed to be likely candidates for the Liberal nomination.
Mr Barilaro has made it clear he will not contest the seat should Mr Constance decide to run.
Labor Leader Anthony Albanese is understood to have personally endorsed Ms McBain.
However, is has been reported that corporate consultant Leanne Atkinson is also in the mix. She has run for the ALP in the state seat of Bega three times without success.
The NSW Nationals leader and NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro, whose state electorate overlaps the federal seat in southern NSW, is expected announce a switch to federal politics by also challenging for the seat.
Yesterday he said he was “prepared to lose” and conceded “it could be the end” if he contested the marginal seat, held on a slim 0.85% margin. He is expected to make his decision on standing this weekend.
The federal Nationals division will conduct wider polling to test Mr Barilaro’s popularity in the seat, which stretches from Yass to Eden. The Liberals have also commissioned polling, with senior party figures claiming they were confident they could win the seat.
“On many measures Eden-Monaro can claim the title of being Australia’s most important single forest industries federal electorate,” AFPA CEO Ross Hampton said.
“It contains major employers in both plantation and native forest industries.
“Thousands of Eden-Monaro voters therefore either work directly in our industries and tens of thousands more in jobs associated with our industries, like truck driving, heavy machinery maintenance, trades, flora and fauna management, fire-fighting and the list goes on,” he said.
Forest industries are also spread right across the electorate from the Eden wood chip mill and Boral’s hardwood sawmill in the south east, to the softwood plantations and sawmills at Bombala in the south and Tumut/Tumbarumba in the west.
Mr Hampton said the by-election would come at a crucial time for the NSW South West Slopes region’s softwood plantation-based industries, which are its biggest employer, supporting nearly $2 billion of economic activity and more than 5000 jobs.
That area includes the Visy cardboard manufacturing plant, the Hyne and AKD sawmills, the Borg panels plant and Forestry Corporation of NSW’s nursery which grows seven million seedlings each year.
The region’s softwood timber industry was hit hard by the Black Summer bushfires, with about 40 per cent of the softwood plantations burned, and the economic downturn as a result of COVID-19 is forecast to lead to a large downturn in the housing construction market, which will be an additional blow to the softwood timber processing industry.
“The December and January bushfires hit Eden-Monaro very hard, especially the Tumut/Tumbarumba area,” Mr Hampton said.
“The future looks very difficult and businesses and workers are desperate for federal assistance to chart a sustainable future until replacement trees are planted and can grow to a useable size. This will take at least fifteen years for pulpwood and over 22 years for sawlogs.”
Mr Hampton paid tribute to Dr Kelly.
“Dr Kelly has been a strong advocate for the forest industries of his electorate, and we thank him and wish him well,” Mr Hampton said.
“Our industry needs another pro-forestry representative in Parliament now more than ever.”
