IndustryEdge’s Wood Market Edge online. The dramatic lift in softwood log exports in April 2023 preceded the announcement exports to China will again be possible. However, these exports were already on sea or even delivered by the time the Chinese trade announcements were made. Sources: IndustryEdge, charts IndustryEdge and ABS
While exports of over 144 k m3 for the month are welcome for a variety of reasons, none were despatched to China. India was the destination for 91% of the total, with shipments to it from Tasmania (Burnie: 19.5 k m3), SA (Port Adelaide: 20.0 k m3), Victoria (Portland: 56.3 k m3) and NSW (Twofold Bay/Eden: 34.9 k m3) all making contributions.
Over the year-ended April 2023, Australia’s total exports of softwood logs were 51% lower than the prior year, totalling just 0.425 million m3. In a stellar month-by-month turn around, exports in April rose from 1,842 m3 in March (the lowest we have on record) to 144,314 m3 in April.
For export, softwood logs are differentiated as larger or smaller than 15 cm diameter. The distinction between log sizes was previously more noteworthy, but analysis becomes challenging as monthly export volumes are increasingly erratic, as seen in the chart. If the chart retains validity in such light markets, it is merely to show the contrast between what was once the case and what is now occurring.
Australian Softwood Log Exports by Size: Jan ’21 – Apr ‘23 (‘000 m3 and AUDFob/m3)
Larger logs (diameter > 15cm) dominate Australia’s exports, over most time periods. From 2021, the trend shifted away from favouring exports of the smaller diameter logs, albeit with much diminished volumes. However, in recent months, with the emergence of India as a new destination, the larger diameter logs are again dominating, as exports of the smaller logs rapidly diminish. In April, exports to India dominated, as set out above.
Over the year ended April 2023, exports of the smaller logs totalled 0.046 million m3 or 10.8% of the total, while shipments of larger logs totalled 0.378 million m3 (89.2%).
Differentiation of exports based on their diameter also allows for some price analysis. Export prices for the smaller sized logs have remained at a relatively stable price in recent months, moving through a narrow range, while the average price of the larger diameter logs has fluctuated.
In April, exports of the smaller logs were recorded at AUDFob129.34/m3, and the larger diameter logs were recorded at AUDFob137.13/m3.
Malaysia is the key recipient of Australian Hardwood log exports, having replaced China as the dominant market player. In April 2023, Australia’s hardwood log exports totalled 30,676 m3. The average price was reported at AUDFob137.85/m3. Examined on a full-year basis, across the 12-months-ended April 2023, hardwood log exports were down 14.5%, totalling 282,134 m3.
Australian Hardwood Log Exports by Country: Jan ’21 – Apr ’23 (‘000 m3)
The table below shows hardwood log exports by State for the last three months. Across the year ended April 2023, exports from Tasmania dominated, accounting for 89.4% of all Australian exports.
Inevitably, Tasmania ships significant volumes of hardwood logs to Malaysia.
Australian Hardwood Log Exports by State: Feb ’23 – Apr ’23 (m3)
New Zealand
Softwood exports weakening – down 3.3% year-ended April New Zealand’s softwood log exports are focussed primarily on supply to China, with total exports for the period totalling 20.519 million m3, exported at an average price of NZDFob171.90/m3. The weighted average price was 1.0% lower for the year, compared with the prior year.
New Zealand Softwood Log Exports by Size: Jan ’21 – Apr ‘23 (‘000 m3 and NZDFob/m3)
Despite the annual averages, the data shows that the price of smaller dimension (<15 cm SED) softwood logs fell steeply in late 2022 and only recovered in the last month, more-or-less mirroring the reported prices for the larger dimension logs.
In April 2023, New Zealand’s total softwood log exports reached 2.092 million m3 (the highest monthly volume since July 2021), up 23.9% on the prior month, with the average price resting at NZDFob171.90/m3.
