The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Spring 2024 shows increased risk of fire for large areas in NT and Queensland, as well as far west and southwestern Victoria, and the southeast corner of SA. Source: Timberbiz
Mean temperatures for the year to date have been above average to very much above average for most areas, with areas of western WA and northern SA experiencing highest on record maximum temperatures for the period. August saw widespread above average temperatures and was the warmest August on record.
For spring, there continues to be an increased likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures across most of Australia. There is an increased chance of above average rainfall for much of NSW, Queensland, eastern Tasmania and far southeast SA, while large parts of WA have an increased chance of below average rainfall.
For this outlook period, increased risk of fire for southern and central Queensland is driven by dry grasslands caused by winter frosts and dry winds. In northern Australia, unseasonal rainfall in Queensland and NT has led to increased fuel loads. In both cases, fire authorities warn of increased fire danger as temperatures increase.
Further south, large parts of southeast SA and WA and parts of Tasmania received rainfall in the lowest 10% on record for the first half of the year. However, August saw above average to well above average rainfall in both southwest WA and western Tasmania, easing dry conditions in the region. Fire authorities are advising communities of the potential for an early start to the fire season in parts of SA and Victoria, and extending to Tasmania if warm and dry conditions continue to dry out fuels towards summer.
While other parts of Australia show normal risk of fire during this outlook period, communities are encouraged to be vigilant and stay alert through winter months. Destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia.
AFAC CEO Rob Webb urged communities to prepare and adhere to advice of local fire authorities this spring.
“Fire and emergency services are prepared for the fire season ahead and are here today to encourage communities to do the same,” Mr Webb said.
“Now is the time to make a plan. Understand your local risk, know where you will get your information, and talk to your family about what you will do.”
This Seasonal Outlook was developed by the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Fire Department, the NSW Rural Fire Service, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Country Fire Authority, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action Victoria, Tasmania Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, Bushfires NT and AFAC.
