Hardwood chip deliveries to China rose to 345,856 bdmt in March 2018, a solid rise of close to 31% on the prior month, while deliveries into Japan fell 10.3% to 184,650 bdmt for the month. Source: IndustryEdge for Timberbiz
But monthly data is inevitably very patchy – a single vessel delivering a day early or late has a large impact at each end of a month for instance.
That is why the annual and quarterly data is of greatest interest. The table below provides the annualised and quarterly data and comparisons, for China and Japan. Annualised, it can be observed that deliveries to Japan are up a solid 11.5%, totalling just over 2.001 million bdmt for the year-ended March. Over the same period, deliveries to China are down a modest 1.4%, totalling a still very strong 3.808 million bdmt.
* Q-o-Q is Quarter-on-Quarter, comparing the current quarter with the same quarter a year earlier # Y-o-Y is Year-on-Year, comparing the current year with the prior year
It can also be seen that total deliveries are down 3.3% over the last quarter, with shipments to China down 7.4% in MQ’18, compared with MQ’17 and those to Japan up 5.2% over the same period.
We can make too much of this data because of delivery timing and general market movements having a relatively large impact because nearly all shipments are full vessels, meaning a handful of vessels can have a big impact on the total over shorter periods.
On that basis, annualized data is of greatest interest. Deliveries to China are down just 1.4%, essentially in line with the prior year. The rise in shipments to Japan is more important because it indicates a return to growth after some years of lackluster performance.
IndustryEdge provides the monthly Wood Market Edge, Australia’s only forest and wood products industry market intelligence and analysis service. For samples and subscription and service details go to www.industryedge.com.au
