John Cameron
The Andrews Government forest policy is driving the Gippsland timber industry towards extinction and leading to greater use of less ecologically sustainable building materials and imported forest products from countries with poor social and environmental records and manufactured using Russian timber and energy.
Annually in Victoria about 1.0 million cubic metres has been sourced from the harvesting of about 3,000 ha pa within 160,000 ha of the Vic Forests ‘operable area’ that is available for timber production. The annual harvest area is only 0.04% of the huge 7.5 million hectares of Victorian public native forest of which about 7.3 million hectares is reserved for other use such as conservation.
A decision based on the narrow focus of in-situ conservation of two species (greater and yellow-bellied gliders) has resulted in the virtual cessation of this seasons harvesting in native forest coupes, throwing hundreds of people out of work, many with monthly payments on equipment. Mills will be forced to close and timber towns such as Orbost face considerable socioeconomic turmoil.
This supreme-court decision is ironic in that Vic Forests is now forced to spend months completing more intensive resurveys within a few hundred coupes totalling about 3,000 ha, yet there has been no requirement to survey at the same intensity almost all the 7.5 million hectares precluded from timber production, to fully appraise the threatened status of the species. Vic Forests are expected to deliver Rolls Royce conservation within the 3,000 ha of coupes it harvests each year, while The Department of Environment Land Water and Planning (DELWP) and Parks Victoria continues to inflict considerable ecological damage by wildfire across 7.5 million hectares by persisting with an unsustainable fire policy ‘Safer Together’, that does not comply with the recommendations of the 2009 Bushfire Royal Commission [1].
The narrowly focused court decision also has no regard to the broader consideration of ecologically sustainable development, nor the geopolitical implications – some of which are discussed below.
Based on recent global events, geopolitical considerations are particularly relevant. Actions that reduce supply of Australian timber at this time (where supply is already in decline), are increasing demand for imported timber and timber products, including from countries with appalling records on the environment and social justice. Russian native forests represent the global ‘swing’ volume. China sources timber from Russia and accounts for $2.2 billion of Australia’s $3.7 billion trade deficit in forest products (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Imports from China are up and exports well down delivering $2.2B trade deficit
Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, China immediately increased imports of coal, oil and gas from Russia. China is currently building pipelines to receive more Russian gas. A portion of the imported forest products from China are likely to include products manufactured from Russian logs using power derived from Russian coal, oil and gas.
Australia’s and Victoria’s log production is in serious decline (Figure 2) due to closure of native forest to harvesting and conversion of plantations back to farmland, as a result of favourable prices for agricultural commodities.
Figure 2: Victorian log production is in serious decline [2]
This declining log production will get a lot worse because the plantation estate is shrinking, particularly in the Central Gippsland NPI[3] region close to Opal’s Maryvale mill and Ash’s hardwood sawmill at Heyfield. The shrinkage of net plantation area in Victoria is 50,000 ha or 30% over the last five years (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Net planted area has declined by 50,000 ha in three NPI regions over only 5 years2
The Andrews Governments Forestry Plan launched three years ago was heralded as the solution to phasing out native forest supply but has effectively delivered little more than ‘announcements’. The loss of plantation area rather than expansion of net planted area is an indictment on the Andrews Governments Forestry Plan. It should be a lightbulb moment for a government hoodwinking communities that it can replacing 1.0 million cubic metres of native forest timber by converting 14,000 ha farmland to plantations in Gippsland. The 14,000 ha will only produce about 250,000 cubic metres per year in about 25-30 years’ time and will not even replace the plantation area lost over the last five years.
The decline in native forest log supply over the last 20 years has resulted in a reduction in Victorian Gross Regional Product of $6.6 billion (cumulative over 20 years) and reduction in Victorian employment of about 5,560 jobs (Type 2 – Direct Employment + production induced + consumption induced) on a full time equivalent (FTE) basis. Over the next 20 years, the cessation of native forest supply under the Victorian ‘Forestry Plan’ is expected to contribute to a further loss $5.6 billion in Gross Regional Product and the loss of another 3,660 jobs.[4]
To invest in new technology and remain viable mills need increasing supply but face a cessation of native forest supply and a decline in plantation supply. Without urgent and sensible government action even more mill and forest jobs are at risk.
We will be forced to use less environmentally friendly building materials such as concrete, steel and aluminium (Table 1), with a greater component imported from countries with lower social and environmental credentials.
Table 1: Greenhouse friendly attributes of Sawntimber as a building materials [5]
Much of our alternate building materials such as steel, aluminium and wood-based panels are sourced from China and manufactured using power derived mostly from fossil fuels including increasing supply of fossil fuels from Russia. China’s use of fossil fuels increased threefold over the last 20 years (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Chinese energy supply by source (TJ) [6]
China’s imports of coal, oil and gas from Russia increased immediately after Putin invaded Ukraine on 24/2/22 from US$4.3 billion in February 2022 to about US$9.0 billion over July –August 2022 (Figure 5). The imports have been secured at substantially discounted prices such that the increase in tonnage is considerable. These purchases are assisting the funding of Putin’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine.
Figure 5: Chinese imports of coal, oil and gas from Russia increase following invasion of Ukraine[7]
China and Russia are in the final stages of building pipelines that can send gas from Siberia to Shanghai. The 8,000 km pipeline with 3,000-km in Russia and 5,111-km in China transmits natural gas from Siberia to nine provincial-level regions in China, according to a report from the Xinhua News Agency on 17 Sept 2022 (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Construction on the China-Russia eastern natural gas pipeline project
Whether by accident or design, Victorian forest policy and green activism are supporting Putin’s Russia and other undemocratic countries.
John Cameron (Dip Hort. Burnley, MBA Monash, and tertiary units in economics, mathematics and statistics) is a forestry and business consultant previously holding positions in General Management, Corporate Development and Research in forestry and forest products. Former roles include Chairman of Private Forestry Gippsland, Chairman Southern Tree Breeding Association, Chairman Australian Research Group on Forest Genetics, Board Member CRC for Forestry Hobart & CRC for Pulp and Paper Science Monash.
[1] Cameron, J N (2020) Victorian megafires and government policy and practise. Submission NND.600.00145.01 to Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements.
[2] Derived from ABARES data (2022).
[3] National Plantation Inventory (NPI) regions.
[4] Cameron, J N (1920). Ecologically sustainable management of Victorian native forests. LC EPC Inquiry into Ecosystem Decline in Victoria, Submission 471.
[5] Adapted from RAC Report & I. Ferguson, B. Lafontaine, P. Vinden, L. Bren, R. Hateley, and B. Hermesec, B. (1996). Environmental Properties of Timber. FWPRDC Report PN005.95
[6] IEA (2022). World Energy Balances. (Excludes electricity and heat trade. Coal also includes peat and oil shale where relevant).
[7] Bloomberg News 20/7/22 and Ailing Tan (2022). China’s Spending on Russian Energy Climbs to Record $8.3 Billion Bloomberg News 20/9/22.
